International Large Civil Engineering ;Bidding Risk Evaluation ; Stochastic Network ; Analytic Network Process ; Simulation ;Partial Least Square Regression

　　本文从承包商角度，对国际大型土木承包工程项目投标过程中的风险评估方法进行深入系统地研究。针对国际大型土木工程的特点，建立定性与定量相结合的数学模型，同时力图尽可能考虑风险因素的相关性，以深刻描述客观事物。本论文的研究方法可供承包商在对投标项目进行风险评估时参考，对在工程咨询中介机构中工作的造价工程师、监理工程师等也有一定的参考价值。第一章，介绍了课题研究背景和国内外的最新研究动态，提出了本文的主要研究内容和技术路线。第二章，对国际大型土木工程的投标程序、投标定价的模式以及投标理论研究状况进行分析,在此基础上系统分析了国际大型土木工程承包项目投标风险的总体结构、特性、测度指标和影响因素，提出工程投标风险评估是由选标风险评估、成本预测风险评估、投标工期风险评估、施工方案风险评估四部分组成。第三章，针对承包单位面对选标的两种情况，分别建立了基于改进的AHP方法的选标风险评估模型和基于灰色关联分析的工程风险评估模型。

　　第四章，引入描述成本估算准确性的指标----成本估价风险的概念，分析了影响成本估价风险的影响因素;为准确地评价成本估算风险，对影响成本估价风险的风险因素之间的相关系数的求法进行研究;建立了基于偏最小二乘回归分析(PLS)的工程费用估算模型;建立了因素相关和独立条件下基于MAT LAB/SIMULINK的成本风险仿真模型，通过案例研究，对比了两个模型的仿真效果;研究了成本风险的敏感度问题。第五章，对项目施工工期和费用之间的相关性进行深入研究;考虑施工工期风险与费用估计风险之间的相互制约、相互影响的关系的基础上，建立了非线形的多加性随机网络(GERT)模型，用于工期风险的估计预测;对多加性随机网络的工期-费用优化问题进行了探讨。第六章，采用网络层次分析ANP(Analytic Network Process)方法来评价施工方案风险，结果表明是否考虑风险因素相关，往往会影响最终的评价结果。第七章，对全文所做的工作进行总结,对今后的工作进行了展望。

　　From the views of contractors, the dissertation is focused on the quantitative risk evaluation methods in the bidding process of international lager civil engineering project. Considering the characteristic of international contacting project, the mathematical models which describe the objects more accurately are established to quantitate the risk. The study methods are for the contractors’ reference, meanwhile they are valuable for cost engineering and consulting engineering etc.Chapter 1,introduce the background and present of the study. Give the main content and technique route of the

　　dissertation.Chapter 2,based on the analysis of international engineering bidding process, bidding cost models and the study present of competitive bidding theory, the paper analyses the structure, character, measural index and influence factors of the bidding risk systematically, and puts forward the view that the bidding risk is composed of project choosing risk, cost estimating risk, duration estimating risk and construction plan choosing risk.Chapter 3，pointing to the two difference situations in the process of contractors’ choosing project, An improved model based on AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and a model based on grey connection analysis are used to quantitate the risk separately.Chapter 4，

　　introduce the concept of cost estimating risk to describe the accuracy of cost estimation and analyse the influence factors on cost estimation .Meanwhile the three methods are proposed to calculate the correlation between the different influence factors. Establish a cost estimating model based on Partial Least Square Regression. Through the case study, contrast the simulation results of the two models which establish based on MATLAB/SIMULINK under the condition of factors dependence and independence. The sensitivity of cost estimation is also studied. Chapter 5，study the correlation deeply between project duration and cost(time-cost trade-off). Use the additional GERT network to calculate the duration risk considering the correlation. Try to solve the optimal time-cost trade-off problem in additional GERT.Chapter 6，use ANP(Analytic Network Process)theory to evaluate the risk of construction plan. For rank becomes reversed when calculating AHP model and ANP model with the same data, it proves the priority of the plan has the directly connection with the model whether considering dependence and feedback of elements or not. Chapter 7,summarize the whole dissertation and give some suggestions to future research in bidding risk field.